Predicting Technology Evolution
… using technology.
The problem with predicting where technology is heading is that we can only rely on the past. As a species, evolution and technology moved so slowly that for the entirety of our existence, we expect things to be like they are now just a little bit better. However, we’re seeing more the unpredictable nature of new technologies.
Cellphones, the Internet, and now new AI tools are disrupting entire industries and only a few people predicted them. The are resulting in exponential outcomes. So how do we more reliable predict?
There is a pattern for these explosive changes and they occur more often. First, things lumber along in a technology and new features are added until widespread adoption is reached, then an adjacent technology is applied and it races forward and a new group of early adopters takes it on. We can look at where the adjacent technologies might propel things forward.
AI and water quality monitoring, AI and dog walking, computer vision and fridge cameras, computer vision and cosmetics, 3D printing and gaming, 3D printing and food preparation.
Where technology can help in predicting is coming up with the list of adjacent technologies for us to analyse. We quickly generate lists of hundreds of potential combinations and have them assessed. We can sort this list and see which could have the biggest impact and some possibility of actually occuring.
