My Concern Over Humanoid Robots
I’m not worried that humanoid robots like the Tesla Optimus are going to turn on us, Animatrix style. No, I’m more concerned about the work that will be required to get them to be helpful and that it will impede the spread of truly useful robots. I’m worried I’ll overspend on one of the first three generations of these robots and be a subject on which the kinks get worked out.
I have two nth generation cleaning robots in my home today. With the mop, it’s so much effort that I maybe have the patience to use it once a month. With the vacuum, I’m constantly cleaning it, removing clothes from its inlets, cleaning sensors, and sweeping up a trail of debris in its wake. It’s more reliable than the mop, but it is by no means a “set it and forget it” device.
Home robotics technologies are going to develop at exponential rates. It took 23 years for the Roomba to evolve to what it is today and to be somewhat usable. Humanoid robots are going to take less than half that time but hardware is hard and the first three generations of releases are going to be status symbols rather than useful devices. It may be 2032 or beyond before these get reliable enough to take over menial tasks.
Companies producing these robots will likely need to develop some incentive for the upfront risk of working with these devices. Early Tesla owners received free battery and motor replacements and lifetime charging. Might a similar inducement be available for those willing to spend $10,000 or more for a laundry folder and dish cleaner?
These robots eventually will get to a price-performance point where investing in one is a no-brainer. However, that point will be on top of a mound of obsolete robot corpses that aren’t able to get over-the-air upgrades that push them there. Maybe there’s an opportunity in the obsolute robot realm to start exploring today?
